[36] This is despite a relatively successful record of agricultural growth. [2] Richard Jackson and Neil Howe, The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century (Washington DC: CSIS, 2008), 12. This chapter introduces anti-natalism, the view that is wrong to bring new people into existence. }, At the root of the problem is that human populations continue to grow, but the amount of freshwater stays roughly the same over time. One of the toughest short-term challenges facing the next U.S. administration is how to address the problem of militancy on Pakistan's western border. Volcanoes - what are they? The high teen fertility rates in Bangladesh vis-a-vis Pakistan is probably simply due to lower aggregate development (Pakistan is still higher up on the HDI ranking, though the gap is closing). The result has been a shifting population demographic away from the classic pyramid model to a more cylindrical shape. A natalist policy is a scheme or law that a government may adopt in order to control their population. [27] More than half the urban population of Pakistan lives in the eight largest cities, and Sindh is the most urbanized province in Pakistan on account of Karachi. [26] According to the Pakistan Ministry of Finance, the total remittances sent to Pakistan between FY2002 and FY2006 were $4.57 billion. China’s birth control policy, known as the one-child policy, was in operation for over three decades before recent reforms were made to allow couples to have up to two children. 6 (2004): 489-504. This is a time of great unpredictability in Pakistan and for U.S. decision-makers. The United States should recognize that its words and deeds can create incentives and disincentives for Pakistanis to work toward peace, stability, and moderation. If not, the costs of stirring resentment in Pakistan may not be worth the immediate benefits of action. } China’s One Child Policy History. This is usually carried out by incentives - money or material goods that are given to families if they have below or above a certain number of children. The United States feels the urgency of the threat, while Pakistanis take a longer-term view of progress. Few could argue that the economic turnaround this decade has not been beneficial for Pakistan. The United States must find ways to deepen its partnerships with foreign governments and militaries and key stakeholders in civil society to help shape an environment supportive of U.S. objectives over the long-term. At least one development bank has argued that without the creation of three new dams in Pakistan by 2016, the country will experience a severe water shortage by 2020. [37] Ismail Quereshi, “Agriculture for Growth and Poverty Alleviation: Policies and Programs of the Government of Pakistan,” (Pakistan Development Forum: The Demographic Dividend-Unleashing the Human Capital, Jinnah Convention Centre, Islamabad, April 26, 2007). Pakistan was hit particularly hard by the global food crisis this year. This is a very brief description of how pro-natalist policies work. Despite its poverty, Bangladesh's population doubled between 1970 and 2000. 4. part 2 (Winter 1995): 723. Case Study: Pro/Anti Natalist countries France: France had an early beginning to family plans and pro natalist policies. Already in 1939 the ‘Code de la Famille’ was introduced because of the declining fertility rate in France. This heightens the importance of disrupting terrorist networks and limiting proliferation at its source. Furthermore, many countries around the world struggle with similar long-term challenges and sustain normal partner relationships with the United States. Khan. [65] Robert Looney, “Failed Economic Take-Offs and Terrorism: Conceptualizing a Proper Role for U.S. Assistance to Pakistan,” Strategic Insights 2, no. Many in Washington believe the United States has not yet found a true partner in Islamabad—civilian or military—willing and able to stand up to the Taliban and al Qaeda in both word and deed. } 20 Edgar R. Chasteen. In the most elementary sense, a larger population provides more men to field in battle. The politics of dam building in Pakistan are extremely complicated though, with each provincial government fearing that they will somehow be shortchanged. Strong secessionist feelings and sectarian and ethnic tensions tend to overwhelm weak political institutions that have been purposefully kept weak by military rule. Government programs and foreign aid may help to ease the burdens of those who suffer most during this transition, but it is economic growth ultimately that has the potential to lift millions of people out of poverty, such as what the world is witnessing in China, and to a lesser extent, India. At present, Pakistan receives roughly half of its energy supply from natural gas, 30% from oil, 11% from hydroelectric energy, 8% from coal, and 3% from nuclear energy. Both will have to contend with an ongoing demographic transition characterized by a shifting age structure and migration pattern that are likely to place newfound resource pressures on food, water, and energy, and heighten the importance of addressing poverty, education, and violence. Shahid Javed Burki, for instance, has argued that the recent GDP growth may have been artificial and is unlikely to be sustained without higher rates of investment in key industries like power generation and job creation for the rural poor. The degree of instability will largely be a function of how the country manages to address three societal ills that could be heightened by the transition period: poverty, lack of education, and violence. 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